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Business cycles have not been repealed. There will be another recession, but I doubt it is underway. Over the four quarters of 2008, the U.S. economy is still expected to expand at a solid pace. The many well-advertised headwinds facing the economy are expected to be offset by the effects of monetary and fiscal stimulus, a gradual ebbing of the drag from residential construction, further progress in the repair of financial and credit markets, a slight retreat from record energy prices, and still-solid demand from abroad. Although inflation risks are already elevated, they continue to be confined primarily to food and energy. The Ameriprise Financial forecast shows inflation becoming more widespread, and in turn more problematic for consumers. After all, in an attempt to avoid a credit-induced recession in 2008, the more accommodative monetary policy of about the last year has validated higher food and energy prices. It now seems that this validation has increased the odds of an inflation-induced recession in 2009. Read more.